Both Republicans and Democrats in these strongly conservative states see the unrest around education as symptomatic of broader unease about years of budgetary belt-tightening that have followed popular tax cuts.
In Arizona, home to weak labor unions and a muscular school-choice movement, Gov. Doug Ducey, a first-term Republican, has championed tax cuts and private alternatives to public schools. The state is also holding a referendum this fall on expanding its school-voucher program. Daniel Scarpinato, a spokesman for Mr. Ducey, said the governor was prepared to defend his record.
Democrats running for governor have aligned themselves closely with teachers. The two Democrats vying to oppose Mr. Ducey, state Senator Steve Farley and David Garcia, a former state education official, said they viewed education funding as the strongest issue galvanizing opposition to the Republican-held government. Both Democrats have called for eliminating a range of tax exemptions to create revenue.
But Matthew Benson, an Arizona-based Republican strategist involved in education issues, warned that teachers risked overplaying their hand if they were too confrontational.
“By demanding 20 percent pay hikes and threatening to walk out of the classroom, Arizona teachers risk alienating voters and blowing their best opportunity in memory to achieve real change in this state,” Mr. Benson said. “I suspect Arizona voters’ well of sympathy for teachers is not bottomless.”
In Kansas and Oklahoma, backlash against severe service reductions has spurred Republican-held legislatures to enact taxes that would have been unimaginable a few years ago.
Gary Jones, the state auditor of Oklahoma and a Republican candidate for governor, said his party had been “irresponsible” in slashing taxes without a plan to make up for lost revenue. That has bitten into public education: some rural districts in Oklahoma have a four-day week, and some schools are rationing paper and cutting foreign language classes.
A former chairman of the Oklahoma Republican Party, Mr. Jones said Republicans would imperil their hold on the governorship if they did not address voters’ alarm about properly funding public services.
“It’s real easy, politically, to cut taxes,” Mr. Jones said, cautioning that some issues matter more than taxes: “People care about their kids. They care about their futures.”
Most Republicans in the governor’s race, however, have not joined Mr. Jones in chastising the right and the party overall remains committed to a small-government agenda, including in education. Among Democrats in these states, there is rising hope that a debate over funding schools and paying teachers could help them appeal to normally skeptical voters to the right of center.
Drew Edmondson, a former state attorney general in Oklahoma who is running for governor as a Democrat, called education a populist issue with appeal to rural conservatives.
“It’s the special interests and the lobbyists who have kept our tax rates artificially low, to the detriment of our schools and hospitals and services to people,” said Mr. Edmondson, who has been protesting with teachers at the State Capitol. “I think that’ll resonate with the Trump voter.”
Oklahoma’s governor, Mary Fallin, a Republican, has already approved an increase in the state’s tax on oil and gas production to increase education funding. But Mr. Edmondson said that step did not go far enough; he has called for increasing that tax further and eliminating a capital-gains tax deduction that favored the wealthy.
The education issue appears most likely to affect governor and state legislative races where school funding is most directly at stake. In some states, however, important federal offices are also on the ballot and mobilization among teachers and education-minded voters could raise turnout in perhaps half a dozen contested races for the House and Senate.
It is not unusual for states to elect governors of the opposing party because of state-level concerns. As recently as 2008, the four states rocked by mass teacher protests — Arizona, Kentucky, Oklahoma and West Virginia — all had Democratic governors. During the Obama administration, several blue states elected Republican governors in part as a check on government spending and powerful labor unions.
Most conservative leaders believe they still have a mandate to enact a broad agenda of fiscal restraint, including in education, at the state level. In Kentucky, teachers are protesting a bill, signed on Tuesday by Gov. Matt Bevin, to restructure public pensions for future teachers to be more like private 401(k) accounts. But State Senator Damon Thayer, the Republican leader in the chamber, predicted the measure would be popular in November.
Mr. Thayer acknowledged some legislators might feel pressure from “teacher protests and the hate-filled rhetoric on social media.” But he said he intended to campaign aggressively to defend the pension overhaul, and said voters had elected an all-Republican government because they wanted dramatic reform.
“I believe there is a huge, silent majority out there, who are shaking their heads ‘yes’ at what Republicans are doing right now,” Mr. Thayer said in an interview. “Frankly, I don’t think this will be a negative, in terms of this fall’s campaign.”
Democrats in these states are making the opposite calculation. In Kentucky, Andy Beshear, the state attorney general and a potential candidate for governor in 2019, has rallied with teachers and has vowed to sue to block the legislation.
Kentucky teachers have mobilized in response: in addition to protesting, at least 40 educators are planning to run for state legislative seats this year, said David Allen, a former president of the Kentucky Education Association. Most are Democrats, but eight Republicans are among them.
“It’s urban, rural, statewide and it is indeed unprecedented,” Mr. Allen said of the mobilization. “I became an educator in 1968, and I’ve never seen anything like this.”
The school-funding fights are likely to have implications within the national Democratic Party, which has struggled to win rural states over the last decade and counts public employee unions as a crucial constituency. Democrats eyeing the 2020 presidential election, including Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, have expressed support for the teachers. And Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont hailed the strikes as a sign that populism on the left can prevail in culturally conservative states.
“Somebody told me that West Virginia, Oklahoma and Kentucky are ‘red’ states,” Mr. Sanders wrote on Twitter on April 3. “They got that wrong.”
Yet it is far from clear that the education protests are tied to a wider Democratic agenda. Mr. Trump won overwhelmingly in states like West Virginia and Oklahoma, and by a smaller margin in Arizona. Union officials cautioned that many of the protesting teachers tend to vote Republican.
Talley Sergent, a Democratic candidate for Congress in West Virginia’s Second Congressional District, which includes the protest-swarmed capital of Charleston, said the walkout movement that ignited in her state was essentially nonpartisan.
“It’s something even bigger: the frustration people have felt and continue to feel for getting the raw end of the deal,” Ms. Sergent said. “They feel the government is rigged against them and not working for them.”
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